Income Report – January 2018
Well January certainly wasn’t one of my ‘better’ months. In fact, I think I was quite lucky to come away with any profit at all.
It was one of those months that highlighted how important it is to have a portfolio;?Following a number of services means that when one is having a bad month the others should be strong enough cover the losses.
Matched Betting actually made me a loss this month of -?561.30. This is because I now mainly concentrate on the higher risk offers (which long term are more profitable).
I have been Matched Betting for over 2 years now so my bank can handle the swings of higher risk offers. I know that although I made a loss this month I will profit overall in the coming months, as long as I am taking value and the bookies money (free bets).
This can also be backed up by the fact I have already made over ?1,500 Matched Betting in February so this has already covered my losses.
The above example is why I recommend building your bank first with the risk free and low risk offers so you will make you a guaranteed income and build your bank, providing a safety net for future offers.
Profit figures for January 2018
> DG Tips +?642.54
> Chloes Football Focus +?496.68
> Quentin Franks Racing -?115
> Master Racing Tipster -?300 (Stopped following service on 26th Jan)
> Matched Betting -?561.30
> Total +?162.92
As the newest addition to my portfolio, it has been a great month for Chloe’s Football Focus. The service has made me over ?496 profit to just ?10 stakes. This is equivalent to 49.7 points in “tipster talk” which is fantastic for any tipster let alone a football tipster.
The highlights of the month for the service include predicting Espanyol to beat Barcelona in the Copa Del Ray on the 17th, this tip alone returning an impressive profit of +?215. Chloe also predicted some other upsets including Swansea beating Arsenal in the Premier League and Celta Vigo drawing with Barcelona on the 4th.
The best thing is that these kind of winning tips are a regular occurrence for Chloe’s Football Focus?if you check out her long term stats.
DG Tips also continued his great form and managed to make me another ?642 of profit, this was to ?20 stakes and is equivalent to 32.1 points profit for the month.
I have followed DG Tips since September 2017 and I have yet to have a losing month with him.
The highlight of the month was on the 6th when he predicted Raz De Maree to win the Welsh Grand National at 16/1. On this day I made ?190 profit from DG Tips. Another highlight was on the 21st when he tipped 3 winners out of 5 horses all at odds over 4/1. On this day I made ?196.80.
DG Tips is actually closed to new members (to protect prices) so you will have to join a waiting list if you are interested.
Although I made a loss in January with Matched Betting?I would never mark it as a portfolio loser. The reason being I know the loss is down to variance and doing more high risk offers, therefore losing months are expected. As long as the winning months outweigh the losing months (which they do as you can check out here) I am happy.
I have built up such a safety bank since I have started Matched Betting that I now focus on the more higher risk offers (which are more profitable long term) so it is not a cause for concern for me. This includes casino offers and not laying value bets, such as Skybet Price Boosts.
A value bet is when the back odds are?higher than the lay odds?on Betfair. For example if the back odds are 5/1 (often due to a price boost) and the lay odds are 4/1 that is a value bet. In this specific example if you placed this bet say 1000 times you will make around ?250 profit, its simple mathematics as shown below:
1000 / 4 (Lay Odds) = 250? ? ? ? ? then 250 x 5 (Back Odds) = 1250? ? ? ? ? 1250 – 1000 = 250 Profit
Obviously placing these higher risk bets will not work out exactly as the above scenario every time due to variance; and this is the reason for my loss this month.
Its similar to tossing a coin, if you toss it 10 times it may land 2 times on head and 8 times on tails. But if you toss it 1000 times it is more likely to be close to a 50/50 split, due to the volume of times it has been done (i.e. 1000 as opposed to 10).
What I’m trying to say is that the higher risk offers can cause losses in the short term but looking at the overall picture if you trust in the mathematics, are always taking value and place as many value bets as possible you will make profit long term.
Looking through my results for January I can see that my losses mainly came from the price boosts mentioned above not winning and not cashing out from the casino bonus offers, this is all down to variance as described above.
The biggest wins in January from Matched Betting include a new account casino offer from King Jack Casino (?127.40 Profit) and Skybets risk free roulette and slot offers (?185 Profit). The biggest losses came from the Skybet Price Boosts which I didn’t lay off and ending the month being ?356.15 down on these.
Master Racing Tipster has been at risk of being removed from my portfolio for a while. Although he has good long term results and I am still in profit from his selections I want to wait until his results pick up and its worth my time putting the selections on.
By 26th January I was ?300 down with his tips at ?20 a point. I decided this was a good time to remove him from my portfolio and start looking at other tipsters as a replacement.
Unfortunately for me after I stopped putting his tips on he went through a winning streak and actually ended the month in profit!
If i’d have carried on I would have ended up over ?60 in profit.
However, I am sticking with my decision to remove Master Racing Tipster from my portfolio for now and keep an eye on his selections for when the results start becoming more consistent again, which I am confident they will.
I have followed Quentin Franks Racing since September 2016 and I am highly in profit using his service. However, due to current results I am watching the service closely to see whether I need to also remove him from my portfolio.
The main reason I am keeping Quentin Franks Racing in the portfolio is because I know historically how profitable his selections are his losses are also limited. For example, he may not have made any profit in the last 6 months but he also hasn’t lost much either.
One month in November 2016 he made me over ?1,400 so in a way I am thinking if I stop following him he may have a similar month and I may miss out.
I also know as a long term member of his service that he had a long break over Christmas to re-analyse his selections and he has used this refreshed?formula since the start of January so I am hoping results will return to previous glories.
However, I do not like following services that are losing or not making any profit therefore it is the one service most likely to be changed in my portfolio in the short term.
Bookies Enemy replaces Master Racing Tipster
As you may have read above I have decided to stop following Master Racing Tipster for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately it seems when follow his tips they just don’t seem to work out and although I haven’t made a loss I have only made a profit of around ?300 in 10 months of following.
I still think long term Master Racing Tipster is a good steady service but I would like to see more consistency if I am to add him back into my portfolio.
I have researched a number of tipsters and trailed a new service at the end of January. Its a service called Bookies Enemy and I am impressed enough to add them to my portfolio full time.
During the trial phase at the end of January I had one winner at 10/1 giving me ?100 profit and I have been backing his selections at ?10 a point since the start of February.
It is a service which send selections around early evening (5-6pm) and tends to lean towards the higher price horses in the field. Therefore, the strike rate may not be as high but the Return on Investment (ROI) of over 40% is very impressive. Since the tipster has been with Betting Gods he has made over ?2,400 profit since July 2018.
I look forward to updating you with the results of me following this new tipster next month.
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